[Mpls] Bus service cuts and fare hikes

[Gary Hoover]

I appreciate Mr. Lilligren's concern about the Met Council undercutting 
transit in Minneapolis.  At a time when we need to increase transit and 
biking/walking options, we need to increase the budget for these 
transportation options.

I suggest that Mr. Lilligren -- and the Mayor, and all of us citizens "out" 
the 3,000 pound gorilla that most folks are not talking about related to 
transportation.  That is the simple fact that petroleum costs are likely to 
triple or even quadruple in the next 6 years.

Gasoline will likely touch $ 3.00/gallon this year, but that is only the 
beginning.  Rises in gasoline costs will cause anger amoung American 
consumers, but the shrinking upper-middle class will be unlikely to change 
behaviour. It is more likely that this anger will be channeled into support 
for war to maintain the status quo for this shrinking class of Americans. 
The Met Council is less concerned with transportation than it is with 
political agendas.  We must speak out, but with what information and 
analysis?

Peak Oil and energy costs may be one way to wake up the Met council -- and 
people as citizens -- to the need for immediate shift to transit-oriented 
Metro transportation.

Conservative Congressman Roscoe Bartlett from Maryland did a presentation on 
Peak Oil in the Congress on Tuesday.  It is available online from 
Energybulletin, here:   http://www.energybulletin.net/4733.html   Read it as 
background: some good technical analysis and references to researcher Matt 
Savinar's work and also to energy banker Matt Simmon's work as well.  It is 
good background.

Bartlett refers to Malthus in his presentation, rightly concerned that we 
will not be able to fed ourselves -- let alone the world -- in the coming 
years.  Here is a good summary related to Malthus.  Mr. Lilligren, give a 
copy of this to all Met council members for bedtime reading, along with 
Bartlett's presentation.

http://www.energybulletin.net/4733.html   Overshoot In A Nutshell (Malthus 
Was An Optimist) by David M Delaney -- Bartlett alludes to the fact that we 
are losing ground in food production and distribution, even with the 
so-called "green revolution" brought about by fossil fuels.  Our population 
has multiplied exponentially -- much of it ( three to five billion of us, at 
least) directly dependant upon cheap and abundant petroleum.  We are set up 
for a massive die off.  Our local policies must be set according to the 
reality of the world we live in - -not according to some Disneyesque version 
of television and print media advertising designed to sell cars and urban 
transportation infrastructure.

More to the point:

We are no longer citizens -- we are producer-consumers.  Here is the 
summary:  oil production is likely to decline over the next 48 months, even 
if Alaska is opened up, and even as worldwide demand increases. Oil prices 
could see $70-to-80/barrel within one year, and $100.00/barrel within two 
years.  Even this change will create huge economic dislocations, but Matt 
Simmons has long said that oil is now undervalued and should be traded at 
about $180/barrel already.  Oil at $200-to-250/barrel is possible within 5 
or 10 years.  Look over the articles available at EnergyBulletin, and 
encourage the Met council to do the same.
Call Richard Heinberg, Colin Campbell, Matt Simmons, or any one of a number 
of local folks to do a presentation on Peak Oil to the Met Council.  The 
folks at CommunitySolutions in Ohio have an excellent Powerpoint on the web, 
as does Matt Simmons.

In addition, do a screening of the documentary "The End of Suburbia" with 
the Met Council.   http://www.endofsuburbia.com/   Get it on DVD, folks, it 
is a good way to start to understand how we need to design our future urban 
transportation infrastructure.

Gas prices will likely hit $3/gallon this summer.  This will not keep us 
from consuming more petroleum than we did last year.  Gas prices will likely 
see $4/gallon in the next two or three years.  This may slow us down a 
little, overall.  If we continue to let the so-called "free market" guide 
our policy, the reality of our predicament will not "trickle down" to us 
until it is too late.  We have absolutely no "plan B" to cheap and plentiful 
petroleum -- not hydrogen ( an energy-loser by all accounts) or solar or 
wind or even coal.  all of these can help, but the most important thing we 
can do is conserve petroleum.

We need BRT and more transit now.  The infrastructure will get more 
difficult to create as energy costs soar in the coming years.  Many of the 
scientists I've read say we have less than ten years to redesign the way we 
live if we hope to avoid such massive economic dislocation after peak oil 
that many of will not be able to afford adequate food, medicine, clothing 
and shelter.

I've got to get some work done -- but am willing to communicate off-list as 
well.  I do work to support my family.  Perhaps more later?

What do other list members think?  Are we simply consumers who complain 
about transit cuts and price increases, or are we citizens who shape our 
world carefully?

-- pedaling for peace and ecojustice -- Gary Hoover