[Mpls] Ethics of strib "Polls"

[David Brauer]

A tweak to Greg Abbott's post:

> This had a huge impact on the down ballot races.  I was the DFL-
> endorsed candidate in Ward 13 that year, and in the previous two
> general elections, total turnout in Ward 13 had been about 13,000
> voters. In 2001, total turnout dropped in Ward 13 to 10,500.  

> I lost that election by 1,000 votes, in a situation where 2,500
> mostly DFL voters didn't go to the polls because the Strib declared
> that the outcome was decided.  

Actually, the 13th Ward turnout in 2001 was 11,040 votes. In 1997 and 1993,
turnout in the 13th was 12,612 and 12,711 votes, respectively.

So the drop was 1,600-1,700 votes. Greg would've had to get about 80 of that
total to win the election. The 13th Ward is about 57 percent DFL-Green
(based on the four-way 2002 Guv's race), so it's unlikely the drop decided
the Council race.

To my mind, the biggest Strib poll problem isn't that they did one two days
before (and today, one day before) the election. It's that they didn't do
what they've done in past years: earlier polls to chart voter concerns and
support as the races begin in earnest. Instead, the paper saved some bucks
and lost some context.

David Brauer
Kingfield