[Mpls] Primary Turnout

[Greg Abbott]

It is a mistake to draw conclusions from this low turnout primary  
election.

There was nothing at stake in this election.   Both Rybak and  
McLaughlin were going to advance to the general, and supporters on  
both sides knew that.  Given the low stakes, plenty of folks in both  
camps sat this one out, particularly given the rainy start to the  
day.  This is also true of the most council races.  Most wards did  
not have a primary or a hotly contested race.  The only real drama  
was in 8, 10, and 13.

The results tell me that chronic voters (people who vote in every  
election, rain or shine) have a slight preference for Rybak.  But  
given that turnout in the general election will more than double,  
perhaps even triple, from the primary, drawing any conclusions from  
Tuesday's results is a fool's errand.

As an example, take the 13th Ward.  Betsy Hodges got over 50 percent  
in this primary, which is amazing for a DFL-endorsed candidate in  
13.  Yet her total vote was only about 2700.  When I ran and lost in  
13 four years ago, I got 4724 votes in the general election.  The  
vote totals for the winning candidate in the last three general  
elections ('93, '97, and '01) were approximately 6800, 7400, and  
5700, respectively.  Hodges needs to find another 3000-3500 votes to  
win, and in Ward 13 that's going to be a challenge for a DFL-endorsed  
candidate.

So it's a mulligan for everyone.  Tee it up, and take another swing  
in November.

Greg Abbott
Linden Hills